WiMAX is not WiFi
Currently, the inclusion of mobile WiMAX chips in laptops is often cited as a key indicator of future mobile WiMAX success. Advocates of mobile WiMAX point to the impact of WiFi-equipped laptops and how this use created the demand for increasingly higher annual WiFi shipments. The same impact is predicted for WiMAX equipment as well as carrier acceptance for WiMAX in the near future by these same advocates.
In reality, the only similarity between WiFi and mobile WiMAX is that both are what they are, wireless technologies. But to render any comparison between the two beyond that simple fact and to project market success from such comparisons is risky at best. Understanding why WiFi actually succeeded and how the WiMAX and WiFi markets differ is crucial to refuting dubious assumptions regarding the impact of laptop WiMAX.
Why WiFi has Blossomed
WiFi gained widespread acceptance due to standardization, a multitude of applications and resulting price point reductions. But above all else the widespread acceptance was due to the proliferation of consumer broadband and the subsequent desire of consumers to access that connection from multiple computers within their home. Inclusion of WiFi within laptops, which is often cited as a major contributor to the success of WiFi, came after growth patterns were already established.
The initial success and much of its subsequent growth of WiFi use is a product of a meaningful application utilizing WiFi access, i.e., the use of portable broadband within the house or small business. The success was not due to Intel's decision to promote WiFi within laptops, although marketing never hurts.
A World without Cable/DSL
Eliminate widespread consumer of adoption of DSL and cable modems from the equation and a very different history of WiFi would have ensued. Would consumers care about laptop WiFi if they lacked broadband connections in their home or small business? Not likely.
But wait, surely both consumers and businesses would still employ those WiFi equipped laptops to access hot spots, right? Possibly, but one must factor into the equation the cold fact most hot spots are backhauled by consumer grade DSL and cable modems. So, once again, the outcome may have been very different without the widespread availability and acceptable price points for DSL or cable modem access.
The Differences
WiFi is ultimately a consumer accessible technology while WiMAX is a carrier platform. Consumers and businesses are building WiFi infrastructure and operating it in unlicensed frequency bands and they can do so by purchasing a sub $200 WiFi kit at a local electronics retailer. Purchase of a laptop with WiFi may actually stimulate further deployment of WiFi routers and other infrastructure, typically to share broadband access. It may also stimulate owners of that device to employ hot spots which have been built out by consumers, municipalities, coffee shops, airports, etc and which are typically backhauled by inexpensive DSL/cable technologies.
In contrast, mobile WiMAX base stations are priced well beyond the means of consumers and small businesses at thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars, for a macro base station. The most attractive bands for WiMAX use, which are 2.5 GHz and 3.5 GHz, are licensed to wireless carriers so to use these networks, most likely, you will have to wait for them to be built and then pay monthly for usage.
In addition, unlike WiFi, WiMAX has no killer app. The benefits of mobile WiMAX to consumers or carriers remain unclear as does the actual performance of mobile WiMAX. Yes, carriers want an IP network and mobile WiMAX can provide that, but numerous simulations suggest a minimal to negative capacity advantage compared to HSDPA/HSUPA unless MIMO, which carriers are reluctant to accept due to the cost of placing more antennas on towers, is included on the WiMAX side and excluded from WCDMA (not exactly a fair fight). Questionable performance gains over existing technologies suggest that an economic incentive to deploy or use mobile WiMAX is also MIA at this time.
Laptop WiMAX Advantage
So what advantage does placing WiMAX in laptops bring to the market? It reduces the cost of subscriber equipment subsidies and it could place a sizable quantity of user devices in circulation. These attributes enhance the value prospect of mobile WiMAX to carriers and they should drive down the cost of mobile WiMAX devices, which is also attractive. However, we must keep in mind that deployment of national networks requires a mass market to depreciate cost. Mobile markets are defined by phones not laptops. Widespread inclusion of mobile WiMAX in mobile phones is the more important metric.
In Summary
Mobile WiMAX will not enjoy the same lift from its inclusion in laptops that WiFi enjoyed and that latter influence has been overstated. Carrier investments in previous technology migration paths, questionable performance advantages of WiMAX and high risk aversion amongst carriers are major road blocks to mobile WiMAX success, as is the carriers' reluctance to deploy new technologies. Placing WiMAX in a laptop will not overcome these obstacles nor can it empower consumers as WiFi has done.
taken from: http://relionotebook.blogspot.com/2009/11/wimax-future-technology-for-netbook.html
